I’ve been waiting to see which breaks first this fall: our prices or our buyers. This week we are getting closer to the answer.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.03% on September 24, up from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year fixed moved to 6.42%, from 6.26% the prior week. Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, framed it as a market still standing on solid ground: “The housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate.”
He’s right about the economy. But here’s what 73 basis points does to a real Orange County real estate payment.
The payment math, on an actual OC house
Take the county’s median closed single-family price of $1,500,000 and put 20% down — a $1.2 million loan.
At 7.03%, principal and interest run about $8,008 a month. A year ago at 6.30%, the same loan was about $7,428. That’s roughly $580 more every month — close to $7,000 a year — for the identical Orange County house. Just last week’s eighth-of-a-point move added about $64 a month.
That’s the whole story of this fall in one number. Nothing about the house changed. The cost of owning it did.
Demand cracked before supply did
The Orange County Housing Report’s numbers are where you can see buyers reacting in real time.
Active inventory sits at 5,045 listings. Pendings and under-contracts fell to 1,793 — the first reading below 1,800 since February 16. Sellers kept coming anyway: 620 new listings in seven days against 432 closings. When new supply outpaces closings by that much and pendings are falling, inventory builds. It’s arithmetic.
Average days on Orange County Real Estate market is now 65 days, median 46. But the county average hides the real story. Under $1 million, median days on market jumped to 45 days and active inventory grew to 1,904 listings. In the $1 million to $2 million band, median days on market is 40 across 1,867 listings.
The cheaper homes are sitting longer than the $1M–$2M homes. That is not normal, and it tells you exactly who rates are hurting: the buyer whose approval was already tight. Above $1 million, more of our buyers are bringing large down payments, equity from a prior sale, or cash — and they’re simply less rate-sensitive.
Prices held. And Orange County is pulling away from California.
For all that, the price data barely flinched.
The Orange County Housing Report has the single-family median closed price at $1,500,000 and the condo/townhome median closed price at $809,000. Median list prices are higher still — $1,749,000 for single-family, $825,000 for condos — which tells you sellers haven’t repriced for this rate environment. Not yet.
The California Association of Realtors’ August report is where the divergence shows up. Statewide, the median hit $901,420, up just 0.1% year over year and 1.6% from July. Sales ran at a 269,620 SAAR, up 1.4%. Unsold inventory: 3.7 months. Statewide median days on market: 28.
Orange County’s August median was $1,452,500 — up 4.9% year over year. California is flat. We are up nearly five points. C.A.R.’s chief economist Jordan Levine noted that “pending sales softened and inventory is taking longer to clear,” and C.A.R. president Tamara Suminski warned that “recent mortgage rate rises could create headwinds ahead.” Both are true statewide. Neither shows up in our price data yet.
The Orange County coast is its own housing market
Zillow’s home value index, as of August 31, has the average Laguna Beach home at $2,990,806, up 6.5% over the year, and Dana Point at $1,755,567, up 6.2%. Both outrunning the county, which is outrunning the state.
Now add September 21: Governor Newsom proclaimed a statewide state of emergency ahead of what the state expects to be a historic El Niño season, directing agencies to prepare for flood, landslide and coastal risk. The next day, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara urged Californians to review their coverage, noting that standard homeowners policies generally exclude flooding, mudslides and debris flows.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling: your competition is growing and your buyer pool just got smaller at the margin. The gap between median list and median closed prices is what hurts sellers in October. Price to today’s buyer, not to August’s comp. Call me and let’s set your number before the market sets it for you.
If you’re buying: you have more inventory, more time and more leverage than you’ve had all year — particularly under $1 million, where the sitting is happening. Rates are a cost, not a reason to wait; a seller 45 days in negotiates differently than they did in June. Get re-approved at today’s rate so you know your real number, and start the insurance conversation the day you open escrow, not the week you close.
The data can’t tell you whether this is your moment. Only you can decide that. Let’s talk and figure out how we can make this market work for you.
Thinking about selling? Start with a free, no-obligation home valuation — I’ll price your home against what’s actually closing right now, not last spring. Or grab my Orange County Seller’s Guide.
Buying this fall? My Orange County Home Buyer’s Guide walks through financing, contingencies and the due diligence that matters most here.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Email: Jaleesa@jaleesapeluso.com
DRE #01935097