Last week the story was 7.28%. It isn’t anymore.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40% on October 8, up from 7.28% the week before and 6.30% a year ago. The 15-year moved to 6.73% from 6.60%, against 5.53% last October. That is the highest 30-year reading since November 2023. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, used the release to remind borrowers that “shopping around for a mortgage rate” and collecting several quotes can save thousands over the life of a loan. Sound advice in any week. In this one it’s worth real money.
What twelve basis points costs
The Orange County Housing Report dated October 5 puts the median closed single-family price at $1,413,518. Put 20% down and you’re financing $1,130,814.
At 7.40%, principal and interest on that loan runs about $7,830 a month. At last week’s 7.28% it was $7,737. At last October’s 6.30% it was $6,999.
So seven days cost you $92 a month. Twelve months cost you $830 a month — $9,961 a year, on the identical house at the identical price. Nothing about the property changed. Only the financing did.
Inventory fell. That is not good news.
The same report counts 4,987 active listings, down 74 from 5,061 — the headline on that report is literally “Inventory Slips Below 5,000.” Normally I’d read falling inventory as strength. Not this time.
Look at why it fell. Closings came in at 470 for the week, up from 341. But 379 listings expired or were canceled in those same seven days. Roughly four homes left this market unsold for every five that actually closed. That is not absorption. That’s sellers walking away from a number the market wouldn’t pay.
And demand kept sliding. Pending contracts fell to 1,653, down 118 from 1,771 the week before — a 6.7% drop in seven days. New listings held at 588, still well ahead of closings. The homes clearing escrow this week went under contract in early September, before rates moved. The pendings number is the live one, and it is pointing down.
The price split nobody is talking about
Here’s the figure from the October 5 report that actually changed my thinking.
Homes over $2.5 million sold an average of $145,424 below list — a 2.9% gap, narrowed from 3.5% the week before. Homes under $2.5 million sold an average of $19,913 below list, a 1.6% gap that widened from 1.1%.
The luxury end is getting stronger on price while the middle gets weaker. That runs against every headline you’ve read this month, and it matters enormously if you own in Laguna Beach, Corona del Mar, or Newport. The $2M-and-up band holds 1,257 active listings at a 58-day median days on market — slow, yes, but the buyers who are showing up are paying closer to ask than they were two weeks ago.
Meanwhile the fastest part of this county remains the $1M–$2M band at a 39-day median, with 1,825 actives. Under $1 million sits at 45 days across 1,919 listings. Countywide median days on market is 46; the average is 66.
California turned up. Orange County turned down.
C.A.R. hasn’t released September yet, so August remains the most recent monthly read — and the month-over-month direction is the part worth your attention. The California Association of Realtors put the statewide median at $901,420 in August, up 1.6% from July. Orange County’s median came in at $1,452,500, down 1.5% from July even while holding a 4.9% year-over-year gain.
Orange County REALTORS’ August snapshot splits it further. Detached homes: median price up 3.7% year over year, months of inventory down 13.5%. Attached homes: median price down 0.7%, sales down 12.3%, months of inventory up 10.8%.
Houses are holding. Condos are not. If you own a condo in Aliso Viejo or Laguna Niguel, you are in a genuinely different market than your neighbor with a detached house three streets over, and pricing yours off his comp will cost you the fall.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling. Three hundred seventy-nine owners gave up last week. Don’t be number 380 in November. A canceled listing resets nothing — buyers see the history, and you come back in spring competing against the same inventory with a worse story. If you’re above $2.5 million, the discount gap is narrowing in your favor and I’d hold the line rather than cut. If you’re under it, the gap is widening against you, and the fix is the asking price, not more time.
If you’re buying. Rates at 7.40% hurt, and they also cleared the room. With 4,987 homes listed against 1,653 in contract, you are choosing from three listings for every buyer who has committed. Ask your lender today about a float-down and what a rate buydown actually costs against your break-even. Get your insurance quote before you remove contingencies — not after.
The data tells you what this market is doing. It can’t tell you whether this is your window. That part takes a conversation.
Thinking about selling this fall? Start with my Orange County Seller’s Guide, or get a free, no-obligation home valuation so you’re working from a real number instead of a Zestimate.
Buying? My Orange County Buyer’s Guide walks through the whole process, start to keys.
Either way, call me and let’s talk through your specific situation.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Book a call: calendly.com/jaleesapeluso | JaleesaPeluso.com
DRE #01935097