If you’ve been waiting for the Orange County market to make a giant, headline-grabbing swing, I have some news that might feel a little anticlimactic: it isn’t. But honestly? What the market is doing right now is actually a lot more useful for you than a dramatic crash or spike would be.
Here is the breakdown of the numbers I’ve been tracking this week.
Mortgage rates eased again — quietly
On August 13, Freddie Mac’s survey showed the 30-year fixed rate at 6.67%, down slightly from 6.69% the week before. The 15-year fixed also dipped, coming in at 5.96%. We’re still a bit higher than where we were this time last year (6.58% and 5.71%), but the trend over the last fortnight has been moving in the right direction for buyers.
Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, noted something I’ve been telling my own clients all summer: even modest dips in rates are enough to get people moving again.
That last part is the whole ballgame. A two-basis-point move doesn’t sound like anything. But I’ve watched buyers who sat out June come off the fence in the last three weeks, because a rate starting with 6.6 instead of 6.9 changes the payment math on a $1.4 million purchase by real money. When small rate moves bring a wave of buyers back, the people who moved before the wave are the ones who negotiated from strength.
Orange County inventory is steady, and that’s the story
Here’s the local picture as of the August 17 Orange County Housing Report:
- Active listings: 5,173
- Pending contracts: 1,919 — essentially flat from 1,918 the prior week
- Closings: 406, up from 365
- New listings: 607, down from 697
When you look at those figures together, you see a market that has found its balance. Demand hasn’t budged, closings are actually up, and new inventory is slowing down—that 90-listing drop is just the typical “back-to-school” seasonal shift arriving right on time.
Here’s the takeaway: if you’re thinking about selling, your competitive field just got thinner. Fewer homes are hitting the market, but the buyer pool is still active. That’s a great window for sellers, but it won’t stay open forever.
Homes are staying on the market just a hair longer—62 days on average. In the $1M to $2M range (where many of my Laguna Niguel and Dana Point clients are), the median time to sell is 38 days. It’s still moving fast, but it gives you a little more breathing room to be diligent.
Prices are still moving up
This is where the data got my attention:
- Single-family median: $1,416,250, up from $1,397,500 the prior week
- Condo/townhome median: $798,400, up from $780,000
Both segments saw a weekly bump, but that condo median is the one that really stands out. An $18,000 jump in a single week tells me that the entry-level and downsizer market in OC is still incredibly competitive, regardless of what you might hear about the national market cooling off.
The monthly data backs this up. While the rest of California is seeing prices flatten out (rising only 0.3% year-over-year), Orange County’s median is up 5.4%. Our local market is simply playing by a different set of rules.
C.A.R. chief economist Jordan Levine attributed the statewide softness to “higher mortgage rates and financial market volatility in the past two months.” Fair. But the divergence between a flat state and a county appreciating over 5% is exactly the pattern I’ve seen play out in South OC for years: when the broader market hesitates, coastal and near-coastal Orange County holds its value because the supply of it is fixed. Nobody is building more Laguna Beach.
Speaking of which — Zillow’s July 31 read on Laguna Beach put the typical home value at $3,056,376, up 6.0% over the past year, with a median sale-to-list ratio of 0.980. That ratio is the honest part of the picture: coastal homes are appreciating, and they’re also selling a couple of points under ask. Pricing precision matters enormously here, and it’s the single thing I spend the most time on with my coastal sellers.
What I’d actually do this week
For Sellers: This seasonal slowdown in new listings is your opportunity. Demand is steady, competition is dropping, but this window usually closes by the end of September. Let’s look at exactly where your home fits in your specific price band before you decide on a number.
If you’re buying: rates have come down two weeks running, and inventory at 5,173 is enough to give you genuine choice. That’s a better setup than you had in the spring. In the $1M–$2M band especially, a 38-day median means you have room to be thoughtful — but not room to be slow.
At the end of the day, don’t try to time the market based on a weekly headline. These numbers are like the weather report—they tell you what’s happening outside, but they can’t tell you if it’s the right time for you to move. That depends on your equity, your goals, and what’s happening on your specific street. That’s the conversation I’d love to have with you directly.
Ready to talk specifics?
If you’re thinking about selling, I’ll put together a free, no-obligation CMA so you know exactly what your home is worth in today’s market: Request your home valuation
If you’re buying, start with my Orange County Home Buyer’s Guide — it’s the same playbook I walk my clients through: Get the Buyer’s Guide
Getting ready to list? Grab my Orange County Seller’s Guide: Get the Seller’s Guide
Or just call me. I’d rather hear what you’re trying to do than guess at it.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Email: Jaleesa@jaleesapeluso.com DRE #01935097