Rates went down again. Buyers still didn’t move. That’s the whole story this week, and it’s worth sitting with for a minute.
Rates fell for a second straight week
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.24% on October 29, down from 7.32% the week before. The 15-year came in at 6.60%, down from 6.68%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, said the 30-year “declined again this week, reaching its lowest level this month and modestly boosting purchasing power for prospective buyers.”
Modestly is the right word. On a $1,184,000 loan — 20% down on the county’s median — going from 7.32% to 7.24% saves you about $64 a month in principal and interest. It buys you roughly $9,400 more house at the same payment.
Here’s the figure that actually matters. A year ago that survey read 6.17%. The same loan today costs about $840 more every month than it did last November. That’s a little over $10,000 a year. Two good weeks don’t undo fourteen months.
Demand keeps sliding while supply ticks up
The Orange County market report for October 26 has pendings at 1,522, down from 1,573. That’s the fifth consecutive weekly decline and, per the report, the lowest October reading in its record. Eric Engelbert, who writes it, put it plainly: “Pending and under contract listings fell again this week to 1,522. That is the fifth straight weekly decline.”
Meanwhile active inventory edged up to 5,054 from 5,034. New listings came in at 507, down from 554, and only 326 homes closed in the last seven days against 366 the week before. Month-to-date October closings sat near 1,163, pointing at 1,400 to 1,500 for the full month.
Supply flat-to-rising, demand down five weeks running. Average days on market stretched to 68 from 67; the median held at 47.
The price picture depends entirely on which market you’re in
Median list price for an Orange County single-family home is $1,719,000, up from $1,699,900. Condos and townhomes list at a median $824,900. That spread is the real Orange County story, and the monthly data says the same thing: Orange County REALTORS’ September snapshot shows detached median prices up 5.6% year over year while attached rose just 1.8% — and attached months of inventory climbed 13.9% while detached fell 6.1%.
C.A.R.’s September report puts the Orange County median at $1,480,000, up 5.6% from $1,401,250 a year ago, against a California median of $899,720 — up only 1.7%. Orange County is outrunning the state by better than three to one on price while its sales volume slipped 2.0% year over year.
One caution on the weekly closing figures. Single-family homes that closed in the last seven days had a median of $1,400,000, down from $1,660,000 the prior week; condos closed at a median $690,000, down from $770,000. Those are small samples — 326 sales — and they bounce hard week to week. I don’t read a one-week drop as a trend. The list medians and the monthly county figures are the honest anchors.
Where the softness actually lives: above $2.5 million
This is the number I’d circle. In the October 26 report, homes that sold above $2.5 million closed an average of $228,442 under list — 4.6%. Homes under $2.5 million closed just $16,314 under list, or 1.4%.
That is a three-fold difference in negotiating room, and it lands squarely on our coastal inventory. Look at Newport Beach in that same report: 149 active single-family listings at a median asking price of $6,500,000, sitting a median 69 days. The 247 that actually sold over the past six months had a median of $4,400,000 and went in 28 days. And 52 listings expired at a median ask of $6,922,500 after a median 122 days on market.
Priced right, the high end still moves in under a month. Priced on hope, it sits for four months and then expires. By price band, the $2M-and-up segment holds 1,264 active listings at a median 59 days, against 41 days for $1M–$2M and 48 days under $1M.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling. Your competition isn’t shrinking and your buyer pool got smaller five weeks in a row. That means the first price is the whole ballgame — especially above $2.5 million, where the data says you’ll either sell near list in a month or discount 4.6% after four. Those 52 expired Newport listings didn’t fail because the market is broken; they failed because they launched above where buyers were. If you’re coastal and you’re serious about moving before spring, let me run your actual numbers against this week’s comparables and show you where the live bid is.
If you’re buying. You have the most leverage this market has offered in years, and it is concentrated above $2.5 million. Thin demand also means extensions and repair requests are gettable right now in a way they were not in spring. Don’t try to time the rate — 7.24% is the lowest reading this month and nobody can tell you where December lands. Get fully underwritten, then shop the softest band you qualify for.
The data tells you the conditions. It can’t tell you whether this is your year. That part is a conversation.
Ready to see what your home is actually worth in this market? Get a free, no-obligation home valuation — or grab my Orange County Seller’s Guide if you’re planning ahead. Buyers, start with the Orange County Home Buyer’s Guide.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Book a call: calendly.com/jaleesapeluso | JaleesaPeluso.com
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