Week of August 31, 2026
Two weeks ago I told you this market was sitting in equilibrium. It isn’t anymore. One number moved.
Rates stopped falling — and that’s fine
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.66% on August 27, essentially unchanged from 6.65% the week before. The 15-year came in at 5.98%, up from 5.95%. A year ago: 6.56% and 5.69%. We’re sitting slightly above last August.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, kept it short: “Mortgage rates changed little this week averaging 6.66%. The economy remains resilient, demonstrated by steady consumer spending and rising household incomes.”
On a $1.5 million purchase with 20% down, the gap between 6.65% and 6.66% is minimal. Rates have been parked in a narrow band for three weeks, so your financing math is stable and predictable right now. The buyers who lose in this market aren’t the ones who get a slightly worse rate. They’re the ones who spend four months waiting for a rate that never arrives while prices in their band keep moving.
Inventory eased, demand held, and closings and time on market jumped
The August 24 Orange County Housing Report gives us this:
- Active listings: 5,136, down from 5,173 the prior week
- Pending contracts: 1,901, down slightly from 1,919
- New listings in the last 7 days: 639, up from 607
- Closings in the last 7 days: 424, up from 406
On the surface, boring. But look at the time-on-market line: median days on market jumped to 44 from 41 — what the report itself called “the largest single-week move in that metric all year.”
Average days on market held at 62, which tells me the tail didn’t get longer. The middle of the market got slower.
By band it gets clearer:
- Under $1M: 41 days across 1,865 listings
- $1M–$2M: 39 days across 1,929 listings
- $2M+: 55 days across 1,361 listings
The $1M–$2M band — Laguna Niguel, San Juan Capistrano, inland Dana Point, much of my day-to-day business — is still the fastest segment in the county. Above $2 million you wait two full weeks longer.
The price gap above $2.5 million is the real headline
The August 24 report also broke out how close homes are landing to asking, and the split is stark:
- Homes under $2.5 million are closing 0.87% below asking
- Homes over $2.5 million are closing 4.2% below asking
On a $3.2 million Laguna Beach listing, 4.2% is roughly $134,000. Not a rounding error. A negotiation.
The medians are holding up. Single-family homes on the market carry a median list price of $1,786,500 against a median closed price of $1,500,000; condos and townhomes show $849,000 listed against $795,000 closed. Two different populations — everything listed versus everything sold — so don’t read that spread as a discount. Read it as evidence that the top of active inventory is heavier than the top of what’s actually transacting.
Orange County still looks strong against the state. The California Association of Realtors’ July report put the statewide median at $887,680, up just 0.3% year over year and down 1.9% from June, while Orange County’s median hit $1,475,000, up 5.4% year over year. C.A.R. president Tamara Suminski: “Despite a slower start to the second half of 2026, improved supply conditions in July, combined with the recent decline in mortgage rates, could provide some relief to buyers.”
Relief for buyers, yes. Selectively, and mostly above $2 million.
The coastal read
Zillow’s July 31 read on San Clemente puts the typical home value at $1,751,799, up 3.9% over the past year, with homes going pending in a median of 14 days. But here’s the number underneath it: 54.8% of San Clemente sales closed below list price, and only 30.0% closed above.
Fast and under asking. Those two facts are both true on the coast. Dana Point’s 92629 zip is running $1,773,931 on Zillow’s read, up 5.5% year over year.
Coastal OC is appreciating. It is also negotiating.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling: the 44-day median is an early warning, not an emergency. Above $2 million, that 4.2%-below-asking figure is likely going to show up in your transaction one way or another — either in the list price you set now, or in the offer you take in November. I’d rather build it into the number up front and sell in five weeks than discover it in week nine. OR take the appropriate action so your house is the one that actually sells for more! Below $2 million you’re still in the strongest segment in the county, and the seasonal slowdown in new listings is a real window.
If you’re buying: your leverage this week is real and it is concentrated. Above $2.5 million, 4.2% under asking is the average — meaning many of those deals did better. Below $1 million, at 41 days and under 1% off asking, you have almost no negotiation power. Know which market you’re shopping in before you decide how hard to push.
And don’t time this off a weekly stat line, including mine. These numbers describe a county and a moment time. They can’t tell you what your street is doing, what your equity allows, or whether this is your moment. That’s a conversation we need to have for your particular house or needs.
Let’s talk specifics.
Thinking about selling? I’ll build you a free, no-obligation CMA so you know exactly where your home sits in its price band: Request your home valuation
Buying? Start with my Orange County Home Buyer’s Guide — the same playbook I walk my clients through: Get the Buyer’s Guide
Getting ready to list? Grab my Orange County Seller’s Guide: Get the Seller’s Guide
Or just call me. I’d rather hear what you’re trying to do than guess at it.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Email: Jaleesa@jaleesapeluso.com
DRE #01935097