Three weeks of falling rates. Nearly 500 closings in seven days. And 443 sellers who took their homes off the market anyway.
Those three facts fit together better than you’d think.
What 7.18% actually does to your payment
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.18% on November 5, down from 7.24% and the third consecutive weekly decline. The 15-year came in at 6.57%, from 6.60%.
“Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, improving the environment for prospective homebuyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
Run it on the real number. C.A.R. puts the September Orange County median at $1,480,000. Twenty percent down leaves a $1,184,000 loan. At the 7.40% we hit in mid-October, principal and interest came to about $8,198 a month. At 7.18%, it’s about $8,021. That’s $177 a month.
Worth having. Not worth waiting for. Because at last November’s 6.22%, that same loan ran about $7,267 — you are paying roughly $754 more every month than a buyer who closed a year ago on the identical house. Three good weeks have barely dented that.
Inventory fell. Almost nobody sold their way out.
Eric Engelbert’s Orange County market report for November 2 shows active listings down to 4,945 from 5,054. Pendings slipped again to 1,494 from 1,522. New listings came in at 449, from 507. Closings spiked — 488 in seven days, up from 326.
But look at the number almost nobody is quoting. 443 listings were delisted last week — pulled, canceled, expired — against what the report describes as roughly 200 in a normal week. More than twice the usual rate.
So when you read that Orange County inventory is tightening, understand the mechanism. Some of it is homes closing. A large share is sellers walking off the field. That isn’t a strengthening market. It’s one where the asking price and the buyer stopped agreeing, and the seller blinked first.
Priced right, you’re giving up less than one percent
Here’s the figure I’d tattoo on a listing appointment. The California Association of Realtors’ September Local Market Report for Orange County puts the median sales-to-list ratio at 99.2%, across 1,116 existing single-family closings, at a median $725.73 per square foot.
The typical correctly-priced Orange County seller is conceding about eight-tenths of a percent — roughly $13,600 on a $1.7 million ask.
Correctly priced being the operative words. Median list for single-family homes is $1,700,000; condos and townhomes list at a median $820,000. And the bands diverge hard. Homes under $1,000,000 average 51 days on market across 1,919 actives. The $1,000,000–$2,000,000 band is the fastest in the county at 42 days across 1,817 listings. Above $2,000,000: 61 days across 1,221 — the slowest lane we have.
The discount widens with price too. Homes over $2.5 million sold $184,101 below list, or 3.6%. Under $2.5 million, the gap was $23,413, or 1.9%. Our coastal price points are negotiating nearly twice as hard.
Zoom out and Orange County is still outrunning the state. C.A.R. has the statewide September median at $899,720, up 1.7% year over year, and Southern California at $895,000, up 3.0% with sales down 9.1%. Orange County’s $1,480,000 is up 5.6%. C.A.R. president Tamara Suminski: “As we move into fall, the market feels a little less rushed, giving buyers more time to carefully consider their options.”
One coastal number worth sitting with
The November 2 report includes a Huntington Beach snapshot, and it’s the cleanest illustration of this market I’ve seen in weeks.
There are 179 single-family homes listed there at a median ask of $1,899,000, sitting a median 52 days. Over the past six months, 515 homes sold, at a median of $1,594,000 — in a median of 15 days.
Now the third number. In that same six months, 143 listings expired, canceled, or withdrew, at a median ask of $2,149,000.
The homes that sold went in two weeks. The homes that quit were asking $555,000 more. Exposure was never the problem.
One more thing worth knowing: Jane Kim declared victory in the California Insurance Commissioner race on November 6, with ballots still being counted. She would replace the term-limited Ricardo Lara. If you own in a coastal or wildfire zone, that office sets the rules your premium runs on — I’ll be watching it closely.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling: don’t join the 443. Pulling a listing in November and relisting in spring feels like a reset, and it isn’t — the history follows the property, and you pay taxes, insurance and interest the whole time you’re dark. If you’re in the $1M–$2M band you’re in the most liquid part of the county at 42 days. Above $2.5M, budget for a 3–4% gap between list and closing, because that’s what the county is printing. Call me before you decide to wait.
If you’re buying: this is the best negotiating window you’ll see for months, and it closes in January. Pendings at 1,494 mean you aren’t fighting a crowd. Get fully underwritten — not pre-qualified — lock when the payment works for your budget rather than when the rate hits a round number, and get insurance quotes in hand before you remove contingencies, because that’s still where South OC escrows die.
The data can’t tell you whether this is your moment. But it can tell you the room is emptier than it’s been all year.
Thinking about your next move in Orange County? Grab my Orange County Home Buyer’s Guide or my Seller’s Guide — or find out what your home is actually worth today with a free, no-obligation CMA.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Book a call: calendly.com/jaleesapeluso | JaleesaPeluso.com
DRE #01935097