After two weeks pinned at 7.40%, a three-year high, the 30-year finally moved.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.32% on October 22, down from 7.40% the week before. The 15-year eased to 6.68% from 6.71%. A year ago those were 6.19% and 5.44%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, called it “some relief to prospective homebuyers.”
It’s the first weekly decline in two months. I’ll take it. But here’s what eight basis points actually buys.
What 7.32% costs on a real Orange County house
The Orange County Housing Report dated October 19 puts the median closed single-family price at $1,660,000. Put 20% down and you’re financing $1,328,000.
At 7.32%, principal and interest runs about $9,122 a month. At last week’s 7.40% it was $9,195. That’s $72 a month. Seventy-two dollars.
At last October’s 6.19%, that same loan was $8,125. You’re still paying roughly $1,000 a month more than the buyer who closed a year ago. This week clawed back seven percent of that.
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management’s preview calls a hold the base case, while noting most Fed officials expect another hike to be justified by year-end. Plan for sevens. Thursday’s post is about what to do if something better arrives.
Demand just hit a floor nobody wanted to find
The Orange County Housing Report counts 1,573 homes under contract — down from 1,616, and “the fourth straight weekly decline.” Eric Engelbert, who writes the report, compared this week to the same week in every prior year he tracks and found “this year’s 1,573 is below every one of them, including the prior low.”
His read: “The slowdown is coming early this year, and the reasons are not a mystery.” The consequence: “Fewer homes going under contract now means fewer closings through the rest of the year.”
Active inventory nudged up to 5,034 from 5,020. New listings rose to 554 from 538. Closings ticked up to 366 from 357 — but closings are last month’s contracts. Pendings are next month’s closings, and they’re pointed down.
Do the division: 5,034 listings against 1,573 pendings is about 3.2 homes for sale for every one in contract.
Prices held — but the discount widened
Engelbert’s line this week: “Sold prices are holding and the homes that do sell are still moving at a normal pace.” The median single-family close came in at $1,660,000 against a $1,699,900 median list. Condos and townhomes closed at a $770,000 median against an $824,900 list.
But look at the gap. Last week I wrote that discounts had narrowed on both ends. This week they went the other way. Homes over $2.5 million closed an average of $118,868 below asking, a 3.1% gap, out from 2.2%. Under $2.5 million, the gap widened to $20,659, or 1.6%, from 1.3%.
One week isn’t a trend. Two weeks of whiplash tells you the buyers still here negotiate harder when they commit — and skip when they don’t.
Days on market by band: the $1M–$2M band is still the quickest at a 40-day median across 1,824 listings. Under $1 million is 47 days across 1,950. Over $2 million is 60 days across 1,264. Countywide median 47, average 67.
Orange County is outrunning California by three to one
The California Association of Realtors released September county data on October 19. This is the divergence I keep pointing at.
Orange County’s median hit $1,480,000, up 5.6% from $1,401,250 a year ago and up 1.9% from August. Sales here fell just 2.0% year over year.
California as a whole? Median $899,720, up 1.7% year over year and down 0.2% from August. Statewide sales ran at a 260,410 annualized pace, down 6.5% from last September. Unsold inventory sits at 3.7 months. Median days on market, 29.
OC is appreciating at three times the state rate on a third of the sales decline. Jordan Levine, C.A.R.’s chief economist, said “slower sales may not translate into a comparable decline in prices in the near term.” Here, they haven’t translated at all. C.A.R. president Tamara Suminski said the market “feels a little less rushed.” Less rushed is right. Cheaper is not.
The coastal number
Zillow puts the typical Dana Point home at $1,773,166 as of September 30, up 6.8% year over year, with a 26-day median time to pending. The county median is 47 days.
Dana Point is moving nearly twice as fast as the county and appreciating faster than it. That’s what a supply-constrained coastal city looks like when everything around it slows.
What I’d do this week
If you’re selling. Your buyer pool is the thinnest Engelbert has tracked for late October, and the buyers left just widened their discount. That’s not a market that rewards testing a number. Price inside the band — the 40-day $1M–$2M lane if you can get there — and treat the first three weeks as the whole game. Correct on day one still closes within 1.6% of ask. Ambitious just adds to 5,034.
If you’re buying. Don’t move because of $72 a month. Move because 3.2 listings per contract is the best selection you’ve had in years, and the top end just conceded 3.1%. Get your lock terms in writing before you open escrow, and quote insurance before you touch a contingency.
The numbers tell you what the market is doing. Whether it’s your moment is a conversation.
Thinking about selling? Start with my Orange County Seller’s Guide, or get a free, no-obligation home valuation so you’re pricing off a real number instead of a Zestimate.
Buying? My Orange County Buyer’s Guide walks the whole process, start to keys.
Either way, call me and let’s talk through your situation.
Jaleesa Peluso | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties
Phone: (949) 395-0960 | Book a call: calendly.com/jaleesapeluso | JaleesaPeluso.com
DRE #01935097